Causes of Effects and Effects of Causes

I am grateful to the editors for inviting me to comment on the paper by Dawid, Fienberg, and Faigman (2013) (henceforth DFF), in which they justifiably emphasize the fundamental distinction between “Effect of Causes” (EoC) and “Causes of Effect” (CoE). My aim in this comment is to share with readers a progress report on what has been accomplished on the question of “causes of effects,” CoE, how far we have come in using population data to decide individual cases, and how well we can answer questions that law makers ask about individual’s guilt or innocence. I hope this account convinces readers that the analysis of “causes of effects,” CoE, has not lagged behind that of EoC. Both modes of reasoning enjoy a solid mathematical basis, endowed with powerful tools of analysis, and researchers on both fronts now possess solid understanding of applications, identification conditions, and estimation techniques.